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September 19, 2007
Bob and "Jerry"
When I fell asleep last night, WVUE meteorologist Bob Breck (who has been around longer than anybody now that Nash is really really retired) was explaining his take on the lastest satellite scans of Invest 93L and poo-pooing the hype that has been bubbling up just because the models show a direct hit on New Orleans.
His latest blog entry (yeah, he has a blog, and he updates every day) provides a voice of reason:
So many people are speculating/scaring people to death. I won't do that. If a storm does form and goes to our west or near us, it will be the first test of our levees since Katrina. Whatever develops is not likely to be much stronger than a Cat. 1 hurricane so the levees should be able to handle a 6-10 foot surge.
To be honest, I kind of want this storm. I want us to get hit by a reasonably weak hurricane, as a test. We need all the new flood gates, the levee repairs, the pumps, the whole system to undergo a real shakedown cruise, and if we do it with a moderate storm and come through it OK, it is going to change things for the better. It will be good for our mental health, it will be good for perceptions nationally, and it will make us more enticing to investors.
I got in a bad bicycle accident a few years ago, and broke some bones, and would have broken my skull if I hadn't been wearing a helmet. And the first few times I got back on my bike after that, I wrecked again. Twice, in fact. Both were minor wrecks, but both were caused almost completely by mistakes I made out of fear and nervousness. I questioned even my most basic abilities, and it made me do stupid things that made me make stupid crashes. The original accident had changed me, had made me a different rider, a tenative rider, a worse rider.
It took me a long while to be able to go down certain kinds of hills, or over certain kinds of obstacles, but once I could prove to myself that I could successfully do the things I used to do before the wreck, but do them safely, without crashing, without going over the handlebars, the fear left.
We need to show that we are a city that knows how to survive hurricanes, and we haven't had that chance yet. We only remember that we are a city that gets its ass kicked, and we're deathly afraid of another ass-kicking, and it makes us crazy.
Posted by ray at September 19, 2007 3:41 PM | Permalink
Categories: [new orleans ]
Comments
To be honest, I kind of want this storm. I want us to get hit by a reasonably weak hurricane, as a test.
agreed, 100% Better to find out this season than to have the city totally collapse.
Posted by: YatPundit at September 19, 2007 5:13 PM
I agree. I remember playing mudball in a tropical storm back in the 80's. Now it seems like people are lining up for last rights for a couple of "tropical" thunderstorms. The morning after, with a few minor power outages and downed limbs, people will wonder what they had gotten all worked up over.
Posted by: celcus at September 20, 2007 9:12 AM
Yeah, I remember when I was a kid, playing outside as Carmen approached trying to see if we could fall forward and have the wind hold us up.
Posted by: Ray at September 20, 2007 9:26 AM
I'd just like to add that I don't live in a FEMA trailer and I'd probably feel different about this scenario if I did.
Posted by: Ray at September 20, 2007 10:30 AM
GREAT post. You're exactly right and I hope it happens like that (and that the gates and pumps and levee repairs work perfectly). I have no idea why I'm so riled up right now. I've mananged to watch all tropical activity since Katrina with total calm but right now I'm worried. I look at that wide water vapor loop and it's covered with counter clockwise swirls and colorful blobs and the big pattern I see looks, for lack of a better word, juiced. Thanks for your patience and your consistent voice of reason.
Posted by: Sophmom at September 20, 2007 5:17 PM
I might be in the minority, but I'd rather this storm not come anywhere near here - New Orleans never needs a storm, and to beckon one now while the defenses are still tenuous is inviting trouble
if we must get a storm, maybe after 5 years when everything (meaning hurricane protection) is "supposed" to be in place perhaps might be the time to "test the waters" - now is not that time
Posted by: swampwoman at September 21, 2007 9:32 AM
Looks like you might get your wish.
Posted by: Sophmom at September 21, 2007 9:55 AM
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